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2012-12-04 at 13:25

Murder rate drops

By Leith Dunick,
Substance UseAre you pregnant and struggling with addictions during pregnancy? Talk to your healthcare

THUNDER BAY -- When it comes to murder, Thunder Bay bucked the national trend – at least for one year.

According to figures released by Statistics Canada, the Lakehead murder rate dropped by 20 per cent in 2011, from five to four. Nationally the rate jumped by about seven per cent.

Overall, Thunder Bay was fourth in Canada with a rate of 3.33 murders per 100,000 people, trailing Winnipeg (5.08), Halifax (4.41) and Edmonton (4.17).

The Canadian average was 1.73 per 100,000, up from 1.62 in 2010.

However, Thunder Bay’s rate will jump in 2012. With less than a month to go the city has already had five murders this year.
There were 598 murders in Canada in 2011. Toronto led the way in overall numbers, with 86, followed by Montreal with 54 and Edmonton with 50.

Kingston, Ont., Sudbury, Moncton, N.B. and Oshawa, Ont. were the only cities of the 34 census metropolitan areas listed not to record a homicide in 2011.


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NDP says:
The stats, when framed this way, are misleading. A few years ago, we had zero homicides. That's a 100% decline in homicides for that year. When you have such a small sample size, looking at year-over-year trends is next to useless.

A better way to frame the statistics would be to take the average number of homicides for a certain period of time, say 10 or 20 years, and report the standard deviation from the average.
12/4/2012 2:55:14 PM
sandstorm says:
how can the headline be Murder Rate Drops when in 2010 we had 5, 4 in 2011 and now 5 in 2012? wouldn't say that's dropping.. DROPS would be more of 1 or 2 in the year..
12/4/2012 3:07:29 PM
tiredofit says:
they base it on previous years, since 2012 isn't officially over yet, they will not utilize those numbers until after new year. So to be fair, yes, there will be an increase in 2012 when compared to 2011/10.
12/4/2012 3:17:36 PM
Arch Stanton says:
Hmmmmm.... a better comparison might be just how much we spend on Statistics Canada compared to Crime Prevention?????!
12/4/2012 3:23:13 PM
Marak says:
We're still NUMBER 4 in Canada!!!! That's not something to be too proud about... :(
12/4/2012 4:34:06 PM
tudor says:
for some reason I believed this was a news site.

How about four too many murders this year.

What does one less mean to our overall crime rate. Why does your news agency continue to cover these stories in such a minor league way.

Marak says we are still 4th in Canada. I will believe him. Where do we rank in overall crime. Likely just as high and have for decades.

As the cops go out of their way to remind us that the murder victim knew the killer, then I guess we can only assume that there wasn't as many fights this year between people who knew each other. So the police had nothing to do with this one year drop.

Cmon TBT. This is horrible reporting.

12/4/2012 5:18:04 PM
tsb says:
(This involves a bit of menu selecting but it has a good amount of basic data.)

Between 1981 and 1990: 3.2 per year
Between 1991 and 2000: 3.7 per year
Between 2001 and 2010: 2.3 per year

2011 and 2012 so far: 4.5 per year
Past five years: 4.0 per year

These are raw numbers, but Thunder Bay's population has been relatively stagnant since 1981.

The only years with 0 homicides in this city, since 1981, were 2004 and 2008.
12/4/2012 7:47:39 PM
The Boss says:
Can't pull the wool over my eyes. Nice try.
12/10/2012 11:08:16 AM
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