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2014-05-23 at 15:04

Skeptical of report

Thunder Bay-Atikokan PC Candidate Harold Wilson.
Leith Dunick, tbnewswatch.com
Thunder Bay-Atikokan PC Candidate Harold Wilson.
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By Leith Dunick, tbnewswatch.com

THUNDER BAY -- Harold Wilson is openly questioning the methodology behind an Ontario Federation of Labour report suggesting Conservative Leader Tim Hudak’s plan to slash the public sector by 100,000 would cost Thunder Bay up to 2,460 public and private jobs.

Wilson, the Tory candidate in Thunder Bay-Atikokan, said Northwestern Ontario didn’t see huge employment growth as the Liberals added 300,000 jobs since 2009 to the provincial payroll, and shouldn’t expect to see many jobs cut if Hudak gains power on June. 12.

“Yes, there are areas that need to be addressed. Those are the ones we’re going to go after. To think that we’re going to lose 2,400 jobs in Northwestern Ontario doesn’t stand up to any water at all, it’s certainly not what I’ve been fighting for,” Wilson said.

The original OFL report looked at Ontario’s 14 largest communities, and suggested Thunder Bay would be the hardest hit of them all, based on the overall change in the unemployment rate, which would grow by 3.8 percentage points to 9.6 per cent.  Sudbury would also be hard-hit, with an estimated 2,875 jobs lost.

An expanded list shows 339 jobs gone in Kenora and 1,349 in Sault Ste. Marie.

Toronto would be hardest hit in terms of sheer numbers, with 62,892 fewer jobs as a result of the cuts.

The number takes into account both the actual number of government jobs cut as well as the spinoff impact in the private sector, using a multiplier of 0.67.

All told, about 167,000 people would be out of work.

OFL president Sid Ryan, whose organization has embarked on a Stop Hudak campaign, issued a stern warning of the potential impact.

“It will take years to recover,” he said in a release.

Wilson said what the numbers aren’t factoring in is the 1 million private-sector jobs Hudak is promising, over eight years, in the Conservative platform.

Even if the OFL numbers were accurate, Wilson is convinced Northwestern Ontario, with about 1.8 per cent of Ontario’s population, would be well ahead of its present employment levels.

“If someone were to say to me, are you thinking you, with your government in power, could create the conditions that 18,000 to 20,000 jobs could be created, the answer is yes,” Wilson said.

“The mining sector alone could mean thousands of jobs. We know that. People are being trained for jobs in the mines, but we’re not getting those jobs right now because we don’t have access. We haven’t been doing the approval process right.”

NDP candidate Mary Kozorys questioned Wilson's logic, wondering where the jobs are coming from. 

"The math doesn't make sense," she said. 

Liberal incumbent Bill Mauro said he can’t speak for the OFL numbers per se, but says it’s hard to believe 100,000 cuts province wide wouldn’t be felt locally.

“What I do know is the top six or seven employers in Thunder Bay are the public sector,” Mauro said. “It’s amazing that the Progressive Conservative candidate would be saying Thunder Bay and the region would not be affected by these cuts.”

Green Party candidate John Northey (Thunder Bay-Atikokan) said the number being put forth by the OFL is plausible, though without the labour group’s methodology, he’s not sure how accurate it might be.

“I do believe the cuts will hit Thunder Bay disproportionately hard due to the number of people that rely on government jobs,” he said.

Arbitrarily picking a number out of a hat, like Hudak’s 100,000 is dangerous, he said, agreeing there are inefficiencies in government that need to be cleaned up.

“It’s a risky maneuver,” he said.

The Ontario Federation of Labour was contacted for comment, but was not immediately available Friday afternoon.

The research was conducted by the Canadian Union of Public Employees’ Toby Sanger.

 


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Comments

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yqtyqt says:
"The research was conducted by the Canadian Union of Public Employees’ Toby Sanger." You need to understand that there is just a little bit bias and self serving interest if the report is conducted by CUPE.

This is kind of like the Liberal stating that the cancellation of the gas plant would be $40 million. When the truth was in fact $680million and the coverup and destruction of documents began.
5/23/2014 3:18:43 PM
j_northey says:
Obviously the union has an axe to grind, but they did spread it across the province (given the Toronto numbers) and gave us more detail than the PC's will. The raw numbers might be up for debate but we all know Thunder Bay is a regional centre thus has many government jobs automatically (more hospital beds to help service nearby communities, more schools to service rural areas nearby, etc.) thus any across the board cuts will hit this area hard.

The public service needs to be studied and make sure it is efficient on a regular basis. There should be a planned review every few years of each department to ensure they haven't grown like weeds. If elected I will push for that, rather than making up numbers as I go along.
5/23/2014 7:10:59 PM
tudor says:
If I am not correct, I hope TBT will correct me with the proper information.

Mr. Wilson questions the methodology of this report-- Okay, let's pretend he is correct.

Mr. Wilson has stated that 1 million jobs will be created if the PC's win-- the article in the paper today states that regardless if his party wins or not, 55% of those jobs being touted will be created anyway. As for the other 45%, they question those numbers, they are not backed up. Some Baloney was the term used.

Mr. Wilson's campaign literature says the coal plant is closing. It is not closing and Mr. Wilson knows it.

Finally, Mr. Wilson says that NOMA arranged the debate intentionally to accommodate the Premier and made it hard for his leader to attend.

So, none of these statements, facts, assertions that cast the PC's in a bad light are accurate according to Mr. Wilson. Not one of them.

If credibility is at all an issue in this election at the moment it seems obvious who is having problems in that area.
5/23/2014 3:25:09 PM
humnchuck says:
But...but...he deflected! Isn't that the standard Hudak response to every scrutinizing question?
5/23/2014 10:01:00 PM
gremlin says:
"What I do know is the top six or seven employers in Thunder Bay are the public sector" Mauro said.

Well thanks for confirming that we have a "bloated public sector" which is what I've been saying all along.

Sid Ryan issues a "stern warning". WOW, I'm shocked by that. He couldn't possibly be BIASED.
5/23/2014 4:02:21 PM
educator says:
Here's a link to the list of the top employers in the city -http://www.thunderbay.ca/Assets/CEDC/docs/Major+Employers+-+May+2012+-+Opens+a+new+window.pdf.

Which services would like to sacrifice first.

Who needs health care? We can always go back to sipping tree bark soup and buying magic elixirs from travelling salesmen.

Education? Only for the privileged, everyone else can work one of 1 Million minimum wage jobs Hudak is going to create.

And who needs provincial government services?

Close the courts and jails, there are no criminals in Thunder Bay anyway.

The MTO, meh who needs decent roads or inspectors to make sure the vehicles on the roads are safe. People can go back to getting around by horse and buggy on goat trails.

All those MNR people do is protect the environment and animals. We don't need trees or wetlands and the fires will eventually stop burning when all the trees are gone. And the animals can fend for themselves like they did for thousands of years.
5/23/2014 8:51:15 PM
S Duncan says:
who needs health care?

Ive got a better question... who gets health care?? Have you been through the wringer at the hospital? The staff are amazing but the system is overwhelmingly poor for the patients and the staff.

Every person that walks through the door there these days is another straw on the back of the withered and weary camel. You can almost hear the whole place moan in disgust when a patient walks through the doors.

that aint health care, that's a disaster with a bigger disaster in the lurk.

Education isn't for everyone. That's why we have a whole host of over educated people that cant get jobs. Maybe they could if the liberals didn't close Ontario down to private business, choosing only to support expanding public leeches instead.

you sound like another cbc sponsored clown suit wearing liberal jester.

why don't you go read the plan yourself instead of cowering behind the scary bedtime story your union told you last night?

and stop the fear mongering. fear looks weak.
5/23/2014 10:08:59 PM
educator says:
Your party leader, the one who will not show his face in Northern Ontario is another Mike Harris.

Harris cut jobs across the province with reckless abandon and left millions with reduced services, services their tax dollars were paying for while at the same time filling his rich friends pockets with tax cuts he claimed would stimulate job growth.

He cut whole ministries including a payment support branch which was responsible for tracking down and forcing deadbeat parents to pay their child support.

The Conservatives also downloaded billions in services onto local governments.

You claim I'm "fear mongering," when in reality I am reminding people that those who forget the past are destined to repeat it.

Just say NO to Tim Hudak and the regressive Conservatives.

You can believe S Duncan and his multitude of personalities or you can educate yourself.

https://www.facebook.com/stoptimhudak
5/24/2014 12:12:44 PM
spazz says:
When my mother was diagnosed with intestinal cancer she was in surgery about 8 days later. She recieved top notch care and hasn't had to wait for anything.

Some disaster. Who's fear-mongering now?
5/24/2014 1:54:38 PM
educator says:
5/23/2014 10:21:59 PM
dynamiter says:
Your just another NDPer/Liberal - guess you are a teacher- you cannot do anything but try and raise the Death Panel arguments for any proposed cut backs. Go to the Sunshine list and look at the people there. How many managers and directors are needed in Center of Addiction. Cant some jobs be amalgamated in the overhead - shouldnt affect delivery. As far as OMNR is concerned - how can you have almost every pulp and sawmill close and still have all of them open and all offices open. That was more that 50% of their workload. They have more people in Southern Ontario in offices that in the North and there is no Crown Land down there. We need a critical look at the frivolous stuff - not the teachers or nurses or hydro linemen. If it was a private industry it would be done - but it seems that our Civil servants cant and wont under the existing regime
5/23/2014 10:54:17 PM
Robert Smithers says:
obviously you dont work in the healthcare field. Tell me something educator, how can a manager in this field "work from home"? They do it all the time.
Managers where I am show up on average 60% of the time and yet get full pay.These are the same people that expense a bag of chips and grace the sunshine list.
5/24/2014 3:50:32 PM
ranma says:
Tudor I can't agree with you more. I can't wait for S Duncan to show up and defend his dear leader.

We know that the debate had several dates and Hudak decided he was not going to come, and he just deflects it and makes it someone else's fault.

It seems the most redeeming quality of Cons today, is they can't take responsibility for any of their actions! If this is the type of government you want, where everything is everyone else's fault, then I don't want to live in this province anymore.

And besides, how are 125 000 jobs going to be created in Ontario alone every year? Canada only creates about 128 000 jobs a year, and that is in the whole country!

http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/061.nsf/eng/02806.html

I hope you Conbots like facts. You know, facts that show you are wrong. Facts that can not be denied.
5/23/2014 4:07:15 PM
S Duncan says:
Hudak isn't my dear leader, Harper is. He's all of ours because democracy spoke and the CPC listened. We rewarded them with a cool majority government that has served us well.

but besides all that..

you're biggest whine is that Hudak cant meet the scheduling? Even if he came here and shot holes in every single thing the NDP or liberals said at the debate, the left wing media and the thunder bay socialists would report it with their left wing lean.

This area is addicted to government welfare. Look at the crying you see everyday around you about the PC plan. If you think the media or the commun... errr socialists are giving him a fair shake you're fooling yourself.

In fact, you haven't even read the plan or taken the brief time to see how it works. Its obvious by your own comment that you don't know.

here, go read it..

http://ontariopc.com/millionjobsplan/#gettheplan

next if you think the PCs are not going to take responsibility for their actions, what do you think about the libs?
5/23/2014 9:49:12 PM
lori says:
LOL, Ranma the last thing these con supporters ever want is fact. Me, I like them.

I loved your 125,000 line. Forgot that one from the article today.

I am okay if the Cons don't like debt. I don't too
I am okay if they feel that the province needs to go in another way. I can respect it even if I don't agree.

But I get nauseated at their anti liberal everything for the past 6 years. The Liberals have done nothing right according to them.

Mr. Wilson is misleading voters in this riding and I am waiting for anyone to challenge him on it. As Tudor said. The coal plant is not closing yet Mr. Wilson says it is. There is no grey there. It is factually incorrect. But these "experts at everything" never let facts get in the way. Gremlin if you don't feel gov't jobs are okay that's your opinion but mine is different. We need those jobs and for the first time in 50 years we are getting them thanks to the Liberals. That is why this city was saved. Sorry to disappoint you
5/23/2014 5:46:52 PM
Enquirer says:
If these numbers are to be true, then the Tories would have to "create" approximately 125,000 jobs per year, for 8 years.

To give the odds on this is relatively simple: since 1976 when these numbers were first collected until now, there has NEVER been 8 consecutive years of 125k/year job creation. The last year alone that 125k jobs were added was in 2003, which has not happened since.

Baseline numbers suggest that regardless of the winning party, 65,400 jobs will be created per year. I believe the Tories should be stating they will "add 59,600 jobs per year", not create 125k of them, if true.

That said, there is one simple way for both sides to win on this: everyone releases their math and methodologies for how they arrived at their final numbers.

Simple concept, no? Let independent auditors, statisticians, and evaluators establish the merit of both sides of the argument then we can go from there.

Of course, this simply won't bode well for some who refuse to listen to reason!
5/23/2014 7:13:55 PM
S Duncan says:
by the way Leith, the Forum poll is put out by the Toronto Star, the most left wing fish wrap there is in Ontario. So I wouldn't pay much attention to them.
5/23/2014 10:21:22 PM
The Critic says:
Democracy only works until enough voters realize they can vote tax dollars into their own pockets.

Ontario is $265 billion in debt. A little short term pain for some is needed or this ship is going to sink.
5/23/2014 10:42:36 PM
OilSandsMan says:
The Liberals added 300 000 public sector jobs to the payroll ? And we wonder why there is a 12 billion dollar deficit ? By 2018, we are expected to be paying in excess of 14 BILLION a year just on interest to service the debt ! Ontario now has a deficit higher than the rest of Canada plus the federal government combined. Continuing down this path is suicide. The sad part is that the people in Southern Ontario are disgusted with the Liberal scandals and mismanagement. I suspect we will all be awaking the day after election to see a PC majority government with Mike & Bill as backbenchers. I think the Liberals will be reduced to a 3rd place party !
5/23/2014 10:48:38 PM
dboots says:
I think its just one more reason to live somewhere else. This city is never going to get any bigger. Jobs will only be created elsewhere, simply because there is no work left to do here. And that is not necessarily a bad thing.
5/24/2014 4:55:17 AM
ranma says:
Ahh S Duncan, you showed up. So instead of answering how Hudak is going to create more jobs in Ontario than almost ALL of Canada, you instead point me to his tripe that still has no answers.

Well I guess all you proved is that Conbots can not think for themselves, and that they will accept any spoon fed rhetoric from their party.

SO please again, how is Hudak going to create almost the same amount of jobs in Ontario, as all of Canada produces on average per year? HOW. There is no way how. It is a logical impossibility.

But I guess you are ok with lies. Afterall, you support Harper, the man who is in charge of the only government to EVER be found in contempt of parliament. A man who whenever tough questions were asked would prorogue parliament. A man who only takes APPROVED questions that have scripted answers. A man who believes the bible is 100% literal truth and that the earth is only 6000 years old. A special kind of crazy..

5/24/2014 1:49:17 PM
S Duncan says:
The reason I sent you there is so you can read for yourself, at your own leisure and speed. Whats the point of me rehashing everything thats right in front of you, only 2 clicks away?

Do you need the union to hold your hand to do that too? The sad truth is you dont want to look, read or understand it because it flies directly in the face of what you have been conditioned to believe.

Its not "conbots" that cant think, thats why we have this proposed plan and you have nothing but a continued approach of failures.

Why dont you go search out the answers to your questions like a mature voter would do?

Thus far all you have done is attack Conservatives, not on their policy but just left wing talking points.

For example you cry about the Rt. Honourable Stephen Harper proroguing parliament but you never bothered to learn how many times Chretien and your precious liberals did it to avoid inquiry into the sponsorship scandal, or when McGuinty did it to avoid the ornge inquiry.
5/24/2014 3:51:54 PM
AndersonSilvasLeg says:
No answer for the job creation question then, I guess?
5/26/2014 12:16:49 PM
ranma says:
S Duncan, I gave you facts. Facts that showed that Canada alone only creates 128000 jobs per year on average. How is Hudak going to magically create almost the same amount of jobs per year in Ontario. He is also going to fast track "skilled immigrants" to Ontario. Gee I thought those jobs were meant to be for Ontarioans, not foreigners. Also, his economist is from the Koch brothers. You know that American team of low life, right wing, oil guys who do anything to make a profit, even break the law.

Chretein prorogued parliament once, so did McGuinty. Both then did the honourable thing and stepped down. Harper..has done it TWICE. Harper has also jammed PATRIOT ACT like bills that are hundreds if not thousands of pages long, without debate. Something only third world dictatorships do. Something he used to accuse the government of, before he was PM.

And how can I attack a policy which is nothing but fairy dust? Numbers don't lie. 1 million jobs in his time frame is impossible.
5/25/2014 3:27:31 AM
Shortpeter says:
Canadian total prorogues 105.
Chretian 4 times
Harper 3 times
Trudeau 11 times
1 million jobs in a province that has out control energy costs, out of control debt, out of control corruption, out if control taxes, impossible in that climate of mismanagement.
If the Patriot Act is good enough for Obama to renew, it is good enough for Canadians.
His economist is using the Don Drummond report commissioned by Mcguinty to solve Ontario's ills, but never had the honesty to implement.



5/27/2014 8:55:10 PM
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