THUNDER BAY — Climatologist Graham Saunders believes the evidence of long-term weather changes in the Thunder Bay area is mounting up.
The city's average daily high temperature last month was 4.2 C, about two and a half degrees above normal.
Precipitation totalled 55 millimetres, which is about normal for the month, but it was almost all in the form of rain (51 millimetres) that fell on Nov. 11 and 12.
Thunder Bay Airport recorded only 5 centimetres of snow in November, compared with the normal of 28 centimetres.
Saunder calls the differences significant.
He said temperature and precipitation trends in the last two decades both point to "a new normal" for Thunder Bay that's developed over the past couple of decades.
"Many Novembers in the 21st century have been similar. If we go back to the 20th century, this is a lot warmer [by comparison]. But if we're in the present, it's not remarkable."
Saunders said what really stood out for him last month was the lack of snow.
"We usually think of November as a winter month. There's more snow than rain if we look at old records. But this time it was almost all rainfall. That's part of a longer trend toward more rain in the wintertime."
Rain in the winter is a concern, he said, because the freeze/thaw cycle can do a lot of damage to infrastructure such as roads and bridges.
Saunders noted that the entire year has been consistently milder than normal in Thunder Bay.
He calculates that if December turns out to be typical, the calendar year will finish about 2 degrees warmer than average.
According to Environment Canada, weather forecast models currently point to slightly above normal temperatures as a whole, despite a bit of a cool-down next week.
Periods of snow are predicted for this weekend but the agency hasn't issued any accumulation estimates.
Meteorologist Steven Flisfeder said forecast models show that Thunder Bay will most likely see near or slightly-above precipitation this month.
