The trees in Thunder Bay aren’t going to start budding today, or even six weeks from now, despite what Canadian groundhogs are predicting, says a local climatologist.
Thursday morning Wiarton Willie did not see his shadow in southern Ontario, therefore predicting an early spring. A similar prediction was made by Nova Scotia’s Shubenacadie Sam.
Thunder Bay climatologist Graham Saunders examined the groundhogs’ predictions a couple of years ago and said they don’t have a good track record when it comes to predicting how long winter will last.
“It’s also pretty difficult to condense the weather of the next six weeks into whether it’s early spring or not; in our area it’s unlikely we’ll have an early spring,” said Saunders.
Environment Canada spokesman Geoff Coulson agreed.
“I don’t think (the groundhog) could ever be right for Northwestern Ontario,” he said.
It would have to take an incredibly warm March with no cold temperature dips for that to happen, he added, noting that is unlikely to happen.
Normal spring-like temperatures in Northwestern Ontario don’t happen regularly until mid-April typically.
Wiarton Willie is said to be about 37 per cent accurate in his predictions, but Coulson said that depends on what a person’s definition of spring is.
“Traditionally, for me, spring is said to be arriving when we start to get those steady temperatures of high single digits and low double digits,” he said.
Throughout history on March 16, the average temperature in Thunder Bay has been a high of zero with an overnight low of minus 11.
“So a forecast of six more weeks of winter or an early spring in Northwestern Ontario doesn’t really pan out as well as it would perhaps in other parts of North America,” Coulson said.
“I don’t know if anybody’s definition of spring, even in Northwestern Ontario, of spring is a high of zero and an overnight low of minus 11.”
For April 16, the average local high is 9 degrees. But Coulson said the city has seen some rather high temperatures on that day as well, specifically 19.8 in 2002 and 14.5 in 2004.
Thunder Bay and much of Northwestern Ontario has been experiencing warmer than normal temperatures this winter. January was five degrees warmer than usual, making it the warmest January since 2006.
Cities and towns like Sioux Lookout, Kenora and Dryden also experienced warmer than normal temperatures, according to Environment Canada.
“A number of locations across Northwestern Ontario did experience a much milder than normal month of January; it is traditionally our coldest month,” said Coulson. “It is the month we would expect to get some pretty bone-chilling temperatures.”
The forecast for the next seven days calls for a lot of sunshine and milder temperatures to continue, Coulson said, adding more seasonal temperatures should return by the following week.
