A veteran political scientist says Thunder Bay is a notoriously last-minute community and he expects more people will file to run in October’s municipal election than the 20 who had officially put forth their names by Thursday morning.
However, Lakehead University associate professor Doug West said it’s doubtful the majority of the movement will come in the ward races, but instead in the at-large category, where as of Thursday morning only five candidates had filed to fill the five available positions.
"I’d watch for that to move," West said, "but I can’t see any other movement in any other wards. I can see them staying the same."
A total of 38 people ran in 2006. The deadline for the 2010 election is Sept. 10 at 2 p.m.
With just five weeks to go, three of the seven ward races have single candidates, all sitting councilors seeking re-election: Andrew Foulds in Current River; Joe Virdiramo in Westfort and Mark Bentz in Northwood.
A fourth, Brian McKinnon in Red River, was unopposed until Thursday, when political newcomer Jay Stapleton filed.
West said name recognition is the main reason the three ward councillors could regain their seats through acclamation, a process that earned Bentz his seat in the 2006 municipal election, as well as Neebing’s Linda Rydholm.
"People probably think they don’t have a chance," West said. "Where you’re going to find contests is where people think they’re going to have a chance."
Foulds said he’s surprised at the number of candidates, particularly in his ward, where by this time in 2006 there were four people running.
"I don’t have a good reason why the number is so low," Foulds said, reached by phone on Thursday. "However I do think you will see some more candidates popping up."
City clerk John Hannam said acclamations are rare in Thunder Bay, and that it’s unusual in Ontario for a city of this size to have any.
Hannam believes a flurry of candidates will likely file between now and the deadline, but admitted on Thursday that it seems the numbers to date appear to be a little on the low side – although the city doesn’t officially track filing trends leading up to elections.
The at-large numbers are particularly curious, he said.
"Our average for the number of at-large candidates is 19.5, so 19 or 20 are typical. In the last election we only had 14."
At-large Couns. Aldo Ruberto, Rebecca Johnson, Larry Hebert and Frank Pullia have yet to file, though Ruberto told tbnewswatch.com on Thursday that he intends to do so a little closer to the deadline and that he expects the aforementioned trio to do so as well.
"There’s no rush, really. We’re just in August. There’s no strategy here either. There’s no scientific method of saying just wait and calculating. There’s no method to the madness, it’s just getting down there and doing it," Ruberto said.
Pullia said he may or may not seek office again, but as he finishes his MBA, he’ll be evaluating employment options that may convince him to sit this one out.
Johnson said she’s been encouraging others to file, though she’s yet to commit to run at large again, saying she’s weighing options that include running for mayor, seeking office in a different municipality or running at the federal level.
Like Foulds, she’s surprised at the numbers.
"It’s been the quietest election that I have ever encountered," she said. "I think it’s important that people put their name forward. I don’t know why people aren’t doing this. I find it very strange."
Johnson said one reason may be that people are satisfied with the way the city is being run.
But more likely it’s the four-year commitment that’s scaring away many potential candidates, she said.
"That commitment of individuals is not there, that’s what I’m hearing in the community," Johnson said.
Coun. Iain Angus has already officially offered in the at-large category, and will join Cindy Crowe, Sharon Ostberg, Beatrice Metzler and longtime councillor Lawrence Timko on the ballot.
Only one sitting candidate, McKellar's Robert Tuchenhagen, has publicly stated he won’t seek re-election this October.
His mother, long-time school board trustee Trudy Tuchenhagen, will take on Terrance Yahn in McIntyre, a ward currently held by the city's longest-serving councillor, Trevor Giertuga, who has yet to say if he'll run again or not.
In McKellar ward David Nicholson is up against union leader Paul Pugh.
Rydholm won’t go unopposed this time around, up against Gary Shchepanik, who lost the seat to her in the 2003 municipal election.
In the race for the mayor’s chair, four have filed, including Mayor Lynn Peterson, former police association president Keith Hobbs, energy consultant Jeff Irwin and Brian Kwasny.
