A strong El Nino could make it a warmer, less snowy winter in Thunder Bay.
Brett Anderson, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, on Wednesday said if the warm water current impacts North American weather as predicted, the city could see a 25 per cent drop in the average winter snowfall amount and temperatures on average that are two to three degrees warmer than normal.
“I think we’re looking at a mild winter,” Anderson said, reached by phone.
Snowfall will be at its heaviest in late November and December, when he expects will see the white stuff fall at close to average levels.
January and February could be different stories, Anderson said.
“Once we get into January and February we think the storm track will be further south and we’re looking at drier periods during those months,” he said.
In typical year, Thunder Bay endures about 160 centimetres of snow.
Anderson said this year’s El Nino, brought on by periodic warming of ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is tracking to be the second or third strongest in recorded history, coming close to levels met in 1997 and 1998.
“What we typically see with a strong El Nino across much of southern Canada is mild temperatures. What happens with a strong El Nino is the jet stream, it divides cold from warm,” Anderson said.
In a typical winter, there is usually a single jet stream, fast moving air currents that flow east to west across North America.
According to Anderson, the southern part of the jet stream carries the moisture and the storms.
“That goes pretty far to the south, too far south for our area and it turns up near the eastern coast. The northern part of the jet stream, which has the colder air, the polar part of the jet stream, ends up getting stunted up into northern Canada,” Anderson said.
“That leaves much of western and central Canada in kind of a void – not that cold, but not that stormy, either.”
Locally those impacts are expected to be felt most strongly in the new year.
Anderson added it’s tough to predict when the snow will start to fall, but wouldn’t be surprised if Thunder Bay sees snow by month’s end, though it could hold off until into November.
