THUNDER BAY – Kevin Page says the biggest threat to the global economy isn’t oil prices.
“It’s politics,” the former Parliamentary budget officer told a crowd of about 60 people on Thursday at a Thunder Bay Chamber of Commerce-sponsored luncheon.
An economist at the University of Ottawa, Page said it’s undeniable the world is considered about the results of the most recent United States election and the impact on the economy going forward. And with good reason, he added.
But there’s no need to panic, Page said.
“We’ve also seen there are a lot of checks and balances in the United States, so there’s been a lot of pushback. President (Donald) Trump hasn’t been able to push through changes on health care and (other) issues,” Page said.
“And we’re going to wait and see where they will go on climate change and other trade issues.”
Page, who in 2013 drew the ire of former prime minister Stephen Harper when he took the Conservative government to court for not releasing details about planned austerity, said he’s confident Canada is strong enough to get beyond the Trump rhetoric, especially when it comes to issues like the president’s decision to rewrite the North American Free Trade Act.
“In the U.S. system they still need to pass laws. NAFTA will have to be passed by Congress. And I think Congress has a strong understanding of the trade relationships with Canada.”
It’s not just Canada that has Page concerned. There’s uncertainty throughout the world, from strongmen like Vladimir Putin’s interference holding Russia’s reins to the authoritarian measures in places like the Philippines, Turkey and North Korea.
The possible collapse of the European Union and Great Britain’s decision to opt out of the EU is also troubling to investors, who seek certainty when risking their money.
“This hurts investment. And we need investment. If you look at investment numbers in Canada over the past five or six years, we’re pretty much flat,” said Page, who this weekend will receive an honourary degree from his alma mater, Lakehead University.
“We’re going to need to deal with the politics. It’s not going to happen quickly. We’re stuck with what we’re stuck with. Then the question becomes how do we support our political parties in Canada to provide a different political direction?”
Should Trump’s isolationism increase, Thunder Bay’s resource-based economy could struggle further. The task of government will be to help find a new strategy and forge growth elsewhere.
“We still have strong trading relationships with the United States, but where are the opportunities we can exploit with these emerging economies, be it India or China or Brazil? It’s a difficult period, but it creates opportunities in that sense, for us to find those new relationships,” Page said.
“It’s not easy, but Thunder Bay has lived through difficult times in the past, as well.”
