An online projection for the federal election places the city’s NDP incumbents in the lead, but a Lakehead University professor says the leaders’ debate will be the real game-changer.
Doug West said he wasn’t surprised to see the two NDP members doing so
well because voters tend to cast their ballots on a familiar face. It’s
the reason he thinks Liberal Ken Boshcoff might have a chance of beating the NDP's John Rafferty
in Thunder Bay-Rainy River given Boshcoff's well-known career in politics.
"The leaders’ debate will change everything," West said on Monday, adding a trickle-down effect may be felt locally.
The projection, posted on the website ThreeHundredEight.com, showed the NDP candidates ahead in both of Thunder Bay’s federal ridings. The projections, collected from pollsters Nanos Research and Ipsos Reid, had the NDP’s John Rafferty at 38.8 per cent for the Thunder Bay- Rainy River riding, followed by Liberal candidate Ken Boshcoff at 32.9 per cent, Conservative candidate Moe Comuzzi-Stehmann at 25.3 per cent and Green Party candidate Ed Shields at three per cent.
The NDP’s Bruce Hyer led with 38.8 per cent for Thunder Bay – Superior North, followed by the Liberal's Yves Fricot at 29.2 per cent, Conservative hopeful Richard Harvey at 29.1 per cent and Green Party candidate Scott Kyle at 5.6 per cent.
But those federal candidates who spoke to Tbnewswatch.com said they don’t pay much attention to popularity polls.
Hyer said the most important poll for him is how people vote on May 2.
"Even if the poll said I was ahead by a landslide I would continue to work hard in this campaign," Hyer said while on his way to Greenstone. "Polling has become too obsessive and I really think the only poll that matters is the one on election day."
Hyer said the voters would pay more attention to his track record and not rely solely on polls when they cast their ballots.
Boshcoff said polls seem to appear frequently and change every day but the most important thing to do is to continue to move forward. While voters may be influenced by polls, he said the job of the politician is to get their position across to the voters.
"No one can really ignore them," he said. "You have to look at them, see what kind of messages they are sending then roll up your sleeves and go back and see people."
Harvey said he wasn’t even paying attention to any polls and added that he looks to find the issues that matter and try for one-on-one contact with voters.
"At this point we’re really concentrating on getting out and
talking to people in the riding," Harvey said. "What is it that they are
interesting in, what is it that they would like to see. That’s what
we’re doing at this point and we’re continuing to move ahead."
West said he sees a lot of potential for a shift this week, following the two national debates.
"I think a lot of people who were on the fence between the Liberals and Conservatives will see a big difference on Tuesday night. Stephen Harper, Gilles Duceppe, Jack Layton and Elizabeth May have all had a crack at this before. I call them long in the tooth. If you don’t deliver, move on. I think it’s time for the four of them to move on."
Ignatieff, the Liberal leader heading into his first election, has matured as a leader and distanced himself from the Stephane Dion era, thanks in part to a cross-country tour.
The English leaders’ debate will air on Thunder Bay Television at 7 p.m. on Tuesday.
