THUNDER BAY - Two large outbreaks of COVID-19 and a growing number of active cases in the district is cause for concern, and the medical officer of health says the trend the numbers take in the next two weeks will determine what lockdown measures can be lifted and what will remain in place.
“The decisions will be made much closer to the time, so not next week but the week after,” said Dr. Janet DeMille, medical officer of health with the Thunder Bay District Health Unit.
“Our numbers could change substantially in that time. If the outbreaks we have settle, that would be a very good sign. It’s not just the number itself but also understanding the context behind the number.”
On Friday, the health unit reported 29 new positive COVID-19 cases, bringing the number of active cases in the district to a record high of 186.
There has also been an increase in the number of new cases listed with no known exposure, with five listed on Friday with no known exposure and 12 still pending. While that is cause for concern, DeMille said more information often comes to light that can link these cases to other contacts.
“Some of those are indirectly linked to other cases or situations, so even though we don’t have that level of evidence, we have quite a plausible theory,” she said.
“It is uncomfortable to see that many active cases,” DeMille added. “It is a lot of work and a lot of follow-up we have to do. It is important to note that some of them are in those two facilities, the Correctional Centre and the jail, so they are managed there as a group.”
Surge in correctional facility cases
Four cases reported on Friday are linked to the outbreak at the Thunder Bay Correctional Centre, bringing the total number of infections in that facility to 66 since Jan. 19.
The Thunder Bay District Jail saw a surge in cases on Thursday with 21, bringing the total number of infections in the facility to 65 since the outbreak was declared on Jan. 9.
The surge in cases at the District Jail is straining resources, with 18 staff having tested positive and more than 20 self-isolating.
“We are very limited to what we can do,” said Bill Hayes, president of OPSEU 727 for the Thunder Bay District Jail. “Right now it’s basically meeting the human rights of the inmates, getting a little bit of time out during the day and minimizing movement in the institution.”
The health unit is working closely with both institutions and the Ministry of Corrections to manage the outbreaks. However, the district jail poses additional challenges in that it is a remand centre and people are released after having possibly been exposed to COVID-19.
“We have a lot of staff that are doing the case and contact management every day, following up and following public health guidance,” DeMille said. “We’ve managed to do that fairly well. We managed to increase our capacity to do that kind of work. We are fairly stretched right now because of the number of cases we have the significance of the outbreaks we are seeing.”
“As far as discharging inmates, we are working with the public health unit and a lot of social services on the outside, and staff on the inside are working hard to get these inmates setup with proper social services, support on the outside, as well as health care,” Hayes added.
All new inmates entering the District Jail are tested and placed into self-isolation, but it takes approximately 48 hours for test results to be returned. Hayes said he would like to see rapid tests available to return results in 24 hours.
“We are looking into rapid testing, but it does take a bit to implement,” DeMille said. “In Thunder Bay, when there is an outbreak, we are fortunate that we can get tests analyzed fairly quickly.”
DeMille said it is possible to bring the outbreaks in the two facilities under control and it will depend on consistent effort from all those involved.
Staff at both facilities are trying to manage the outbreaks by minimizing the movement of inmates and wearing personal protective equipment.
“There are a lot of things happening daily behind these walls,” Hayes said. “Now with all this limited movement, you can’t help but feel bad for the situation the inmates are in and the staff work load has doubled. It’s definitely adding stress for everybody. We are losing people here and there to positive tests.”
Trends must start going down
The situation at the Correctional Centre and District Jail, along with the number of community cases, will determine if lockdown measures are eased on Feb. 9 as part of the province-wide lockdown implemented earlier in January.
“I would like to see both of those outbreaks settle in the next couple of weeks,” DeMille said. “We do know they could go in the other direction. I am cautious to try and not to come to any conclusions as to what will happen two weeks from now. We need to manage these cases and bring it under control.”
The provincial government will also need to consider other variants of COVID-19, such as the U.K. variant that can spread more easily. New modeling by provincial public health officials suggests the U.K. variant could be the dominant strain in Ontario by March.
“The decisions the government will have to make as we approach mid-February when that emergency order ends will have to take that into account,” DeMille said.
According to DeMille, the U.K. variant has not been detected in any cases in the Thunder Bay District. There are certain criteria for sending tests to be analyzed for the variant and some tests have been sent for analysis.
There is hope on the horizon with the COVID-19 vaccine, but DeMille said recent news that the Moderna vaccine deliveries will be delayed in February is discouraging.
“It’s one of those things where right now there is a lot of uncertainty on how it’s going to play out,” she said. “There is a lot of work on the vaccine distribution and the rollout. We are trying to best prepare and plan so when we do get vaccine we can roll it out very quickly.”
