THUNDER BAY - Communities along Lake Superior, including Thunder Bay, will experience the dying effects of a tropical storm that caused flooding and tornados in the Southern United States, but meteorologists say this rare event shouldn’t amount to more than just a rainy day.
“It should arrive in the Thunder Bay area on Wednesday but for most people you wouldn’t really notice anything out of the ordinary because it will just be a rainy day, particularly early in the morning,” said Peter Kimball, warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada.
Tropical Storm Cristobal formed over the Gulf of Mexico earlier this month and made landfall over Louisiana on Monday. Weather models show Cristobal, which is now categorized as a tropical depression, will continue to move northward all the way to Lake Superior due to a warm air mass and southerly winds.
According to Kimball, by the time it reaches the southern shores of Lake Superior it will just be categorized as a low-pressure system, but it will make for a very wet day, particularly for those living on the north shore.
“The storm is expected to track across Lake Superior and the areas most affected would probably be the north shore of Lake Superior from approximately Marathon eastward to Wawa. Those areas would likely get heavy rain,” Kimball said.
“The north shore might experience as much as 20 to 50 millimeters of precipitation, possibly as high as 60. It’s going to be a rainy day, but 20 to 40 millimeters, even 60 would be a rainy day. But we’re not going to have the precipitation amounts you would expect in a tropical storm down in the tropics. Nowhere near.”
Cristobal has left a trail of destruction in the Southern United States from heavy rains, storm surges, and damaging winds of more than 50 miles per hour. It even spawned several tornadoes in Florida.
After making landfall it has since lost much of its strength, but it is still tracking northward, which is a very rare and unique occurrence for a tropical storm. According to the National Weather Service, this is the first time a post-tropical storm has travelled this far north since the mid 1800s.
“Certainly it is fairly unusual for the remnants of a tropical storm to be affecting Lake Superior,” Kimball said.
“We will definitely be watching it closely absolutely. It is unique to have a tropical system make its way all the way to Canada, especially the central part of the country. It’s not unusual for a storm to make its way to Nova Scotia, but to make it’s way all the way to Thunder Bay is unusual.”
Kimball said it is the perfect mix of ingredients allowing the system to move so far north and it’s still too early to tell if climate change and its impact on how and where storms form plays a role in this event, but it is something meteorologists will be keeping a close eye on.
“You really have to have exactly the right ingredients present for this to happen,” Kimball said. “You have to have a tropic system to begin with that is in the right location, namely over the Gulf of Mexico and has the right direction, i.e. northward, and the right upper air pattern aloft over the continent.”
People are advised to monitor weather forecasts for any advisories and motorists should exercise caution in the event localized thunderstorms result in heavier precipitation.
