THUNDER BAY – Warmer than normal conditions were experienced for October in Thunder Bay and the region, says an official with Environment Canada.
Jeoff Coulson, warning preparedness meteorologist, said the average temperature was 7.5 C and the long-term average temperature for October is 5.3 C.
“Over two degrees on average warmer than normal, which is quite a significant amount,” he said.
In terms of precipitation, drier than normal conditions in Thunder Bay and across Northwestern Ontario were experienced, he said.
“For Thunder Bay itself, 34.8 millimetres of precipitation was recorded and the long-term average for October is 62.6 millimetres.”
Coulson said he has seen a trend in warmer than normal conditions, and to some extent drier than normal conditions going back for ‘some time now.’
No new records were broken in the Month of October, but Coulson said we did come close on a few days.
“On October 20th, got up to a high of 22.5 C, the record for that day remains 25.8 C set back in 1978. October 22nd, another very warm day got up to 22.6 C, the current record of 23.9 C set back in 1947 also remains,” he said.
One of the key factors behind the higher and drier than normal temperatures was the fact the jet stream – the strong current of winds in the upper atmosphere that tends to separate warmer conditions to the south and colder conditions to the north – was well to the north of the Thunder Bay area during October.
“There was a more active storm track through the far north, near the shores of Hudson Bay and James Bay, but relatively quiet weather and warmer weather than normal for much of northwestern Ontario,” he said.
The area will ‘not necessarily’ continue with the drier conditions, Coulson said, with rain in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday.
“We do see the conditions drying out by the middle of this week. The sunshine returns for Wednesday and continues, it looks like probably into Saturday at this point.”
Coulson added that the warmer conditions are likely to continue.
“Conditions remaining well above normal for this time of year. Daytime highs over the next few days, anywhere between eight and 11 degrees. The normal high for this time of year for Thunder Bay is only four,” he said.
The temperature trend is expected to remain milder than normal for the month of November and perhaps even into the month of December as well, Coulson said.
“To put those numbers into context, our normal high, as we said for this time of year, normally about four degrees and the overnight low minus five.
“By the time we get to the end of the month, we're looking at normal daytime highs about minus three overnight lows about minus 12. All of this likely meaning we're going to see more days on the plus side than we would normally for the month of November,” he said.
Coulson said it is always a good idea to stay on top of the latest forecast from Environment and Climate Change Canada.
“We know at this time of year, the weather can change quite dramatically and it can become quite messy as we start getting more into the possibility of snow or freezing rain over the course of the coming weeks.”
