Wars and water

 
Wars over water are all but inevitable, says columnist Gwynne Dyer, looking well into the future.

The day could even come when Canada and the United States take up arms against each other, though the noted newspaper columnist is convinced it likely won’t come to that point.

Dyer, 66, spoke to students Friday at a pair of local high schools, where he discussed his newest novel, Climate Wars and the impact climate change will have on the world’s economy, how population shift might occur, natural disasters, drought, political extremism and increased epidemic numbers.

The Newfoundland-born, London-based writer said people are just beginning to discover how the world could react when the going gets rough and global temperatures begin to rise above the two-degree threshold most scientists believe the Earth can sustain.

Dyer said soldiers in a number of countries have taken a keen interest in the effects of climate change and the roles they might have in a warming world.

"What they see is basically problems with food supply in some countries, particularly closer to the equator. The warming cuts their ability to grow food. Hungry people are not reasonable people, or their definition of reasonable changes, and they start to move," Dyer said.

"You end up with waves of refugees looking for places where they can find food or work to buy food. And some of them are trying to cross borders. It’s entirely likely that the people on the far side of those borders haven’t got enough to share and aren’t prepared to take everybody in."

Frontier conflicts can lead to failed states and local wars, particularly in the case of countries facing a shared water system. Dyer pointed to Iraq, whose agricultural bounty relies on water from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.

Turkey, to the north of the war-torn nation, is constructing dams on both rivers, and the water is already starting to disappear downstream.

"The one upstream keeps what water is left and the one downstream doesn’t have enough to grow food. Things like that are quite likely in a warming world. I think we can even expect to see stuff like that short of one or two degrees warming," Dyer said.

Water is the key, he continued, saying without it food can’t be cultivated.

"Land and sunshine are pretty widely available. Water is what makes the difference, in terms of how much food you can grow. There will be lots of water in a warmer world, but it won’t be in the same places, and it won’t be in many of the places we grow food now," he said.

Canada, blessed with an abundance of fresh water, should be in good shape, even if the world’s temperature does rise significantly. But the United States and some of its subtropical climates could quickly become barren wastelands if a solution to their water woes isn’t found.

Dyer said that likely means allowing Americans to tap into the Great Lakes, especially if fertile grounds like arable California are forced out of the agricultural market because of a dwindling water supply.

"We’re going to have to figure out how to share our water with the Americans. That is the bottom line. First of all, they’re our neighbours. If they’re in trouble, why wouldn’t we? Besides, if you don’t, they’ll kick the door in. Desperate people have different standards of behaviour. But I think this can be finessed. They will be wanting to take water out of the Great Lakes, and we’re going to have to find out a way to do it, even if it does lower the level."

Dyer is set to speak on Friday night at Lakehead University, where he is to present Crawling from the Wreckage: Leveraging Crisis to Implement Change, discussing U.S. President Barack Obama’s role and how he and his country can benefit the rest of the world.