THUNDER BAY – It’s early, but it’s starting to look like a crowded Baseball Hall of Fame ballot might get thinned out a bit this time around.
With about 10 per cent of the vote revealed, thanks to Ryan Thibodaux’s annual ballot tracker, a few things are becoming abundantly clear.
Power-hitting first baseman Jim Thome and Atlanta Braves third baseman Chipper Jones appear to be locks to gain entry to Cooperstown on their first try. Both have earned more than 90 per cent of the known ballots and are well on their way to enshrinement.
Holdover candidate Vladimir Guerrero, one of the last Montreal Expos player with a real shot at getting into the hall of fame, has 91.5 per cent of the vote in his second attempt to pass the 75 per cent standard needed for election, and he too looks like a good bet to get in.
That should mean at least five players will be inducted in 2018, with former Detroit Tigers greats Jack Morris, who also played for the Toronto Blue Jays, and well-deserving shortstop Allan Trammell getting the nod from the hall of fame’s veteran’s committee.
Not going to lie, I thought Trammel was robbed by the writers in his first go-around and am really happy he’s getting a plaque.
Now here’s where things get interesting.
As of Thursday night, two other players were trending over 80 per cent of the vote. Reliever Trevor Hoffman, who missed by a handful of votes in 2017, has 81.6 per cent favourability rating, while ex-Seattle designated hitter and two-time batting champion Edgar Martinez is a tad higher at 83.7 per cent. Hoffman actually gained votes on private ballots last year, a good sign for the one-time all-time saves leader.
Add in the possibility of Mike Mussina finally nudging his way in – he’s at 75.5 per cent and climbing – and there’s a chance next year’s class hits eight players, while removing six names from the ballot all at once.
That’s really good news for someone like Curt Schilling, whose post-career conservatism hasn’t exactly endeared the World Series hero to voters’ hearts.
At 69.4 per cent, he’s got an outside shot at a 2018 election, but would likely be a shoe-in next year when Mariano Rivera, Todd Helton and the late Roy Halladay are likeliest to garner heavy vote totals.
It’s also good news for the steroid-suspected duo of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, both of whom are above 70 per cent after 49 ballots were made public, but both of whom also tend to lose check marks from voters who don’t reveal the names they chose.
Last year Bonds and Clemens dropped about 10 percentage points on private ballots after getting about 63 per cent of the public vote.
A large class also frees up votes next year for a holdover like Larry Walker, who has two more years of eligibility left and has nearly doubled his support from a year ago to 40.8 per cent.
The same can be said for 2017 first-timers Omar Vizquel, Andruw Jones and Scott Rolen, though it like won’t help Johnny Damon and former Minnesota Twins hurler Johan Santana, who look likely to drop off the ballot with less than five per cent of the vote this time around. Neither player has picked up a single vote yet.
My hypothetical ballot (8):
- Barry Bonds
- Roger Clemens
- Jim Thome
- Chipper Jones
- Vladimir Guerrero
- Trevor Hoffman
- Mike Mussina
- Edgar Martinez
