KYIV, Ukraine — Stephen Orlesky is taking no chances with the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The former Thunder Bay man has just made arrangements to relocate his family from Kyiv to Frankfurt, Germany.
Born and raised in the city, he has a camp south of town and was last in Thunder Bay in 2020.
Since September 2021, Orlesky has worked in Kyiv in the field of development finance, helping displaced Ukrainians access low-cost housing.
In an interview Monday with TBNewswatch, he said that in a previous stay in Ukraine, he witnessed the so-called Orange Revolution in 2004 and 2005, but "this time it seems we may be caught up in something much more severe."
Orlesky believes there's a broad range of actions that Russia might take, anything from what he described as a blitzkrieg-like move to surround Kyiv to a more subtle campaign to undermine civil society.
He said the Russians are already suspected of being responsible for recent bomb threats at airports, shopping centres and schools.
"These actions, I guess, are trying to create a type of panic in the population."
Orlesky said this has largely gone unreported in the Western media, but "In the local press, I'm reading about all these efforts to destabilize cities with bomb threats, and so on."
Although Ukrainians appear outwardly calm and stoic, he's seeing growing unease about what might happen next.
"Where I work, some of my colleagues are mentioning their plans to get their families out of the city. One is very concerned because he has a cottage near an air force base, and he's worried that base is going to be a target."
Orlesky's son attends an international school, where many students have gone back to their home countries as a precaution.
He said Ukrainians are pleased with Canada's plan to increase the size of its military training force in Ukraine, but are less happy with the announcement of a $120 million loan to bolster Ukraine's economy.
"There were groans coming from the locals who said we don't need that type of aid, we need defensive weapons," he said, noting that numerous other NATO countries have sent military equipment.
The Ukrainian government has reportedly moved important documents and other assets out of Kiev, possibly indicating an attack is imminent.
But Orlesky said there's also speculation in Ukraine that Russian President Vladimir Putin might hold off doing anything significant until after the start of the Winter Olympics in Beijing.
"Perhaps it's coming closer to invasion day, if it happens, but a lot of locals say the head of China and Putin are good friends, and he doesn't want to take away the thunder of the opening of the Olympics. We'll see if that's true or not. But any delay to anything as grave as this is a good thing."
Orlesky, his wife and son will fly to Frankfurt on Feb. 9, five days after the games start.
