THUNDER BAY -- If you're dreaming of a white Christmas, then the forecast doesn’t look good.
So far this month the city has only had about 13 centimetres of snow, which is well below the average snowfall of about 44 centimetres. The temperature has also been warmer than average.
On Tuesday the temperature stayed around -4C, roughly seven degrees warmer than the city’s average for this time of year.
Geoff Coulson, spokesman for Environment Canada, said the forecast is expected to change for the weekend and temperatures should drop closer to normal averages.
But he wasn’t sure if the city would be having a white Christmas this year.
“We haven’t seen a lot in terms of arctic air,” Coulson said.
“The circulation pattern in the upper atmosphere that steers our storm systems has been more west to east for a lot of this winter. It’s not bringing a lot of stuff from the north.
"Some parts of Northwestern Ontario have seen some chillier temperatures but by and large we’ve seen some milder temperatures.”
In order to have a technical white Christmas at least two centimetres of snow must cover the ground.
Last year the city just had enough for a white Christmas with about five centimetres of the fluffy stuff on the ground.
But that’s not nearly as much as in 2010, where the city had 16 centimetres of snow for Christmas.
Coulson said there’s not much precipitation in the forecast, only sunshine. So the likelihood of having that snow on the ground isn’t great.
“If we look at the forecast over the next few days, there’s not a lot of opportunities between now and Christmas to add any fresh snow,” he said.
“A little flurry activity on Wednesday but then as we head into Thursday and Friday as that ridge of high pressure is moving in, there’s lots of sunshine in the forecast. If we don’t manage much additional snowfall over the course of the next 24 hours or so it is very likely going to be a green Christmas.”
Graham Saunders, a local climatologist, agreed with Coulson’s predictions but preferred to call it a brown Christmas given the city appeared more brown than green.
He said 2012 is the warmest year on record for Thunder Bay, Northwestern Ontario and most of North America.
“We’re speculating that it is going to be a brown Christmas,” he said.
“I think the odds aren’t very good to have continuous snow on the ground and certainly not the kind of snow that we think of at Christmas like 20 or 30 centimetres.”
