TORONTO, Ont. - Modeling released earlier this week shows that if the province stays at the current rate of COVID-19 infections it could see 6,500 new cases per day by December, which has prompted the provincial government to update its response framework.
“We need to be clear about what’s at stake,” Premier Doug Ford said during his daily media briefing on Friday. “We are staring down the barrel of another lockdown. I will not hesitate for a second if we have to go further. Our number one priority is getting these numbers down.”
The Ontario COVID-19 Response Framework was released last week and included five classifications for health units, ranging from Green or prevent to lockdown.
The framework drew criticism from the opposition at Queen’s Park, with Ontario NDP leader saying the Ford government ignored public health advice on determining the thresholds for moving a region to a higher classification.
“I think it’s pretty clear that Doug Ford overruled expert advice and lied to the people of Ontario in order to justify the cancelling of some public health protections, even in hotspot regions of our province,” Horwath said Friday morning.
“If Mr. Ford doesn’t take action right now to stop the explosive spread of the virus, families and businesses in the north will start to pay the price. Mr. Ford caved to political pressure. This was all under the bogus pretext of helping the economy when we know most small businesses can’t make it under these conditions already.”
The criteria for moving to a higher classification have been lowered following the release of the modeling data and consultation with the chief medical officer of health and the Public Health Measures Table.
Dr. David Williams said the thresholds for moving into the Red or Control stage have been lowered from 100 positive cases per 100,000 people to greater or equal to 40 people per 100,000 and a test positivity rate of 2.5 per cent.
The province also announced several public health unit regions are entering into new classifications due to increasing cases. The health units moving into the Red or control classification are in southern Ontario and include Hamilton, Halton region, Toronto, and York region.
Residents living in regions in the Red classificaiton are asked to remain home as much as possible and only go out for essential reasons like work, school, or getting essentials like groceries.
The Thunder Bay District Health Unit remains in the Green or prevent stage. The threshold for moving from Green to Yellow, or protect, is 10 to 24.9 cases per 100,000 people and a positivity rate of 0.5 to 1.2 per cent.
“We continue to be at a very crucial time in this pandemic,” said Minister of Health Christine Elliott. “We’ve seen cases increase 45 per cent in over a week. Positivity rates are increasing dramatically across the province. We have hit 4.4 per cent.”
“We are lowering the thresholds at each level to address the faster rate of growth. While our response to COVID-19 will continue to evolve, it is extremely important that everyone continues to follow public health measures that we know work and keep us safe.”
Ford defended the initial framework released by the province, saying it was based on different modeling when the plan was devised.
“The modeling that I saw now is not the modeling I saw a week ago, or nine days ago,” he said. “Nine days, 10 days ago, what I saw was anywhere from 950 to 1,200 cases. What I saw a couple days ago is 6,500. If I saw 6,500 cases I wouldn’t be out here saying what we are saying.”
Ford added that the province needs to be flexible and able to address what he says is an ever-evolving situation when it comes to COVID-19.
“The updated modeling yesterday made it clear that the situation has changed dramatically,” he said. “What we saw was alarming. Dr. Brown could not have been more clear. If we don’t take action, if we don’t change course in a big way, Ontario is on track for 6,500 cases per day.”
If the numbers continue to rise, Ford said he would not hesitate to institute another lockdown if it is based on the advice of public health officials.
“When I get the green light and the table has come back and say they want a lockdown, I will lock down quicker than you can blink an eye,” he said. “My number one priority is to protect the lives and he safety of every single person in Ontario. I won’t hesitate for a heartbeat to do that.”
