They’re by no means scientific.
But three national poll aggregators suggest much tighter races in Northwestern Ontario than originally expected by many experts.
Riding projections from threehundredeight.com, the Toronto Star’s The Signal and election-atlas.ca show tight races in all three ridings, the tightest of all in Kenora, where incumbent Conservative Greg Rickford appears to be in a battle for his political life.
Rickford, the country’s minister of natural resources when Parliament was dissolved earlier this summer, enjoys a 1.7-point gap on election-atlas.ca, leading Liberal Bob Nault 34.5 per cent to 32.8 per cent. Former Ontario NDP leader Howard Hampton trails in third at 29.8 per cent.
It’s even closer at threehundredeight.com, who has Rickford leading Nault by less than a percentage point, 36.5 per cent to 35.7 percent, Hampton dropping to 24.3 per cent.
At The Signal, the separation is a mere tenth of a percentage point, Rickford ahead of Nault 37.8 per cent to 37.7 per cent.
Perhaps the biggest surprise is in Thunder Bay-Rainy River, where The Signal has Liberal Don Rusnak surging in front of incumbent NDP candidate John Rafferty, leading 38 per cent to 36.9 per cent.
The other two projections have Rafferty in front.
At election-atlas.ca Rafferty is ahead 41.2 per cent to 33.8 per cent over the Liberal hopeful, with Conservative Moe Comuzzi entrenched in third 22.9 per cent. Rafferty’s lead over Rusnak is slightly narrower at threehundredeight.com, 40.8 per cent to 36.3 per cent.
NDP Andrew Foulds has a comfortable lead over Liberal Patty Hadju in Thunder Bay-Superior North at two of the three sites.
Threehundredeight.com gives Foulds an 8.2 percentage point lead over Hajdu, 34.2 per cent to 26 per cent. Conservative Richard Harvey, a second-time candidate who was the runner-up in 2011, is third at 20.6 per cent, while incumbent Bruce Hyer, who quit the NDP caucus and eventually joined the Green Party, is in fourth at 18.7 per cent.
The Signal has Foulds in front of Hajdu 39.9 per cent to 30.2 per cent, with Harvey at 25 and Hyer at just 3.5 per cent, a number likely to be lower than his final vote tally.
If election-atlas.ca is correct, as of Oct. 12 Foulds and Hajdu are in a dog fight.
The aggregator suggests, based on voting trends, that Foulds’ lead is just 1.6 percentage points, 31.8 to 30.2. Harvey has his highest vote count at 26.8 per cent, while Hyer is at 10.6 per cent and independent candidate Robert Skaf only has 0.5 per cent.
The arrival Saturday of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is a sure sign the party believes one, if not both, Thunder Bay ridings are still in play.
All three sites have the Liberals winning a minority government on Monday, with anywhere from 127 to 140 seats. The Conservative range is between 118 and 124, while the NDP are expected to win anywhere between 71 and 82 seats.
The Signal makes its projections at the riding level by extrapolating national and regional estimates. Election-atlas.ca points out its data is not based on local polling, but like The Signal, also on national and regional estimates and give a general idea of trends in each riding. Threehundredeight.com has a disclaimer on its site saying the “riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voting intentions in each riding.”
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Election-atlas.ca
NDP: 31.8%
Liberal: 30.2%
Conservative: 26.8%
Green: 10.6%
Other: 0.6%
Threehundredeight.com
NDP: 34.2%
Liberal: 26%
Conservative: 20.6%
Green: 18.7%
Other: 0.5%
The Signal
NDP: 39.9%
Liberal: 30.2%
Conservative: 25.3%
Green: 3.5 %
Other: 0.9%
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Election-atlas.ca
NDP: 41.2%
Liberal: 33.8%
Conservative: 22.9%
Green: 2.4%
Threehundredeight.com
NDP: 40.8%
Liberal: 36.3%
Conservative: 20.1%
Green: 2.8%
The Signal
NDP: 36.9%
Liberal: 38%
Conservative: 25.3%
Green: 22.2 %
Other: 2.7%
Kenora
Election-atlas.ca
NDP: 29.8%
Liberal: 32.8%
Conservative: 34.5%
Green: 2.4%
Threehundredeight.com
NDP: 24.3%
Liberal: 35.7%
Conservative: 36.5%
Green: 3.0%
The Signal
NDP: 20.8%
Liberal: 37.7%
Conservative: 37.8%
Green: 3.8 %
