THUNDER BAY -- Meteorologists in Canada and the United States are both predicting a better-than-average chance of a warmer-than-average weather pattern for the next couple of months in the Thunder Bay area.
But they are hedging their bets on what might follow in the winter months.
Longer-range American forecasts show the upper midwest of the U.S., including northern Minnesota, has an above normal chance of being warmer than historical trends for the period from October to December.
The U.S. weather models are considered applicable to the region between Lake of the Woods and Thunder Bay.
Environment Canada's Geoff Coulson says the model developed by Canadian meteorologists shows a similar trend.
"We are indicating a fairly good chance of above normal temperatures for October and November, and at this point a slight chance of above normal in December as well."
Coulson cautioned, in an interview with tbnewswatch.com on Monday, that the December outlook is "a bit more uncertain."
One factor that climatologists are pondering is the potential impact from a La Nina that could develop later this fall and into the winter. La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
As it's likely to be weak, Coulson said, "I don't think it's going to necessarily have a lot of influence on the weather in northwestern Ontario."
He added, however, that if a more significant La Nina phenomenon were to develop, it could lead to a somewhat colder winter in Northwestern Ontario in January and February.
U.S. models show a 62 per cent chance a full-blown La Nina will be in place in the period between November and January.
