THUNDER BAY — The likelihood is not strong, but a new forecast from Environment and Climate Change Canada and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers shows Lake Superior has the potential to reach record heights this year.
That would be good news for shipping companies, but shoreline property-owners would find themselves coping with erosion issues.
Lake Superior is currently about 30 centimetres above the long-term average for this time of year.
Keith Kompoltowicz, Chief of Watershed Hydrology for the Corps of Engineers, says the level is projected to remain 18 to 28 centimetres above average over the coming months, or about 5 centimetres to 10 centimetres above levels last year.
Some American media reports this week have focused on the possibility of levels reaching records set in the mid 1980s, starting in May, but Kompoltowicz told Tbnewswatch there is only a small probability.
That could happen, he said, "If we were to see extremely wet, and record wet, weather over the next five to six months."
Kompoltowicz explained that longer-term forecasts for Superior necessitate a range for potential water levels, and that, "out six months, that range is quite wide. If we get wetter than average conditions, the levels will tend to follow the upper portion of that range. Drier tends to follow the lower portion. As we go out, that range gets larger, as it's more and more difficult to predict the weather."
He noted that the current water level forecast shows that, no matter what weather conditions occur around Lake Superior over the next six months, the level will stay above the long-term average.
Higher water results in narrower beaches and may lead to shoreline damage.
It can be beneficial to commercial shippers, however, as vessels are able to carry heavier loads without fear of scraping the bottom of the lake.
