Trump or no Trump, Republicans doomed: LU professor

One way or another, the Republican Party’s chances in November are likely doomed, says a Lakehead University professor of political science.

A day after the self-professed presumptive nominee swept another five primary votes to inch closer to the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the GOP nomination ahead of the party’s August convention, Dr. Laure Paquette said the Republicans face a lose-lose situation.

If Trump is the nominee, she believes Democrat Hillary Clinton will beat him at the polls. And if the nomination is ripped away from Trump at a brokered convention, it will alienate many of his supporters, who might stay away on election day.

And there’s always the chance under the latter scenario that the billionaire businessman and reality TV star runs as a third-party candidate, a sure-fire win for Clinton.

“I don’t see any really favourable outcome for the Republican Party between now and November because either Mr. Trump gets it and they’re going to have to back him – which is going to be very difficult because he’s a loose cannon – or he doesn’t get it and a lot of people are ticked off,” Paquette said, reached on Wednesday by phone.

“And possibly more people will be put out and actually voted for him and then they stay home. Mr. Trump is the best thing that could have happened to get the first woman president elected.”

As it stands, Trump is the lone candidate left in the Republican race who can still mathematically get to 1,237 delegates. 

According to Real Clear Politics, Trump has acquired 954 delegates, leaving him 283 shy of winning outright.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are well back, Cruz earning 562 delegates to this point, Kasich 153, trailing even Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who dropped out of the race in February.

Cruz and Kasich last week announced an alliance of sorts, agreeing to step out of each other’s ways in key remaining states, starting with Indiana next Tuesday. The winner-take-all-race is seen by many as the last chance to stop Trump from hitting the 1,237 threshold.

Trump is leading the latest Indiana polls, but some think by ceding the state to Cruz, the establishment can find the votes needed to keep the 57 available delegates out of Trump’s hands.

Trump, seen by some as an outsider and loathed by party insiders, is also leading in delegate-rich California, where 172 are at stake.
Still, despite the numbers being in Trump’s favour, Paquette does not believe he will be the party nominee when the U.S. election campaign gets into full swing this fall.

It’s a first-ballot win or nothing, she said.

“He’s going to have the overwhelming number, there’s no doubt about it. But that’s not the issue, but the issue is can he win on the first ballot,” Paquette said, adding she doesn’t think he’ll get to 1,237 when the voting concludes in five states – including California – on June 7.

“He’s said so many controversial things that if his delegates get released then that’s why Mr. Kasich is still in the game and that’s why Mr. Cruz is still in the game.

“Cruz is widely disliked by his own colleagues, so Kasich would be the establishment choice.”