THUNDER BAY - When a community experiences a surge in criminal activity, the public’s perceptions of the extent of that activity can sometimes lead to exaggerated fears, biases, and rumours shared on social media that can in turn fuel public panic.
A criminologist at the University of Manitoba and a former Thunder Bay resident, believes a recent video released by the Thunder Bay Police Service is an attempt to assuage some of the fears and address misconceptions that police say are circulating in the public and on social media.
“It’s fairly clear to me that police are trying to tamp down what are basically rumours and a little bit of hysteria mixed in,” said Frank Cormier, a criminologist and head of the Department of Sociology and Criminology at the University of Manitoba.
The video, published by Thunder Bay Police on Youtube and social media on Tuesday, features Det. Insp. Ryan Hughes addressing issues of gang related activity in the city of Thunder Bay.
“We have high substance abuse issues in the city, alcohol abuse in the city, they have been targeting these types of persons or areas,” Hughes said in the video.
Hughes also addresses issues of gangs recruiting local people, gang-related abductions, and human trafficking.
“We do get reports of attempted abductions,” Hughes said. “We follow them up. We haven’t had any gang-related abductions in Thunder Bay.”
Thunder Bay Police were contacted by Tbnewswatch for comment on the video but no one was made available. A statement issued by Chris Adams, director of communications, said “the video was posted in response to community concerns over recent posts to social media regarding gang issues. Detective Inspector Hughes was providing information and clarification to the community on these issues.”
Hughes said in the video that police are having issues with social media posts because police are not involved.
“A comment is made on social media, which it snowballs, there’s no sourcing of it, so we don’t know if it is true, people on the other end of social media don’t know if it’s true, and it goes in all different directions,” Hughes said.
Confirmation bias
According to Cormier, the impact of social media on a community’s perception of crime is significant. It can lead to heightened levels of fear that could have more to do with one's own embedded beliefs rather than any actual threat to public safety.
"Fear of crime goes up and down, generally having nothing to do with the actual threat posed by crime at any given time, but more through the rumour mill," he said. "With social media now, that can basically spread like a contagion. Whereas it might have resided with one person or their immediate family, now it can spread to thousands of people instantaneously."
Social media is an easy outlet, Cormier added, using the example that an individual may witness a crime or believe one has taken place and rather than report it to police, possibly because he or she may not feel it is serious enough, turns to Twitter or Facebook to share it.
"That’s the problem," he continued. "It’s almost too easy for anyone to say anything they want.”
The ease at which information is posted and shared online can sometimes lead to misinformation, misconceptions, and for those already fearing crime, will result in what is known as confirmation bias.
“We look for the things that confirm the things that we already believe,” Cormier said. “We tend to single out things that fit with our world view.”
What is singled out could be a social media post, a rumour, a story, or an actual event or incident. By focusing on the things that confirm the beliefs one already has, it makes those beliefs appear true, and at times, exaggerated.
"Once we get a little bit of information about crime and that grabs us and frightens us, then we are now attuned and we are sensitive and we are looking for more of the same," Cormier said.
“Humans love to have what they already believe be confirmed,” Cormier continued. “So what people will do is they will naturally gravitate toward those sources that tell them the things they think they already know and make them feel: ‘Ah, I was already right.’”
National crime rates decreasing
Cormier recognizes that crime rates in some Canadian cities has gone up, including Winnipeg and Thunder Bay. According to Statistics Canada, in 2017, Thunder Bay once again had the highest murder rate per capita in Canada, as well as an increase in the crime severity index. But overall, the crime rate in the city was down, which matches a national trend of decreasing crime rates that Cormier said is at an all-time low in 40 years.
That can be of little solace though to a public exposed to reports of gun violence in the city, including two incidents in September, one in which sent a person to hospital. Police have expressed concern regarding increased gang activity in the city, and acting Thunder Bay Police Service chief, Sylvie Hauth, has requested assistance from the province to tackle the issue.
Thunder Bay Police Association president Greg Stephenson has not seen the video released by police, but he said if there is a perception in the public that things might not be as they seem, then clarification should be provided.
"We obviously have gang activity and there definitely should be a concern from the citizens of Thunder Bay," he said. "It has increased and we said it numerous times that we need to put things in place to curtail that and bring the city back to what it was five years ago or even 10 years ago."
When crime does occur in a community, especially violent crime involving gangs or firearms, the fear of crime increases and those who fear it will focus on it, turn to social media or other public forums to confirm it, which in turn can spread more fear.
“We have to look at trends and not blips or anomalies,” Cormier said. “People love to respond to blips and anomalies and take it as an indication of something much larger, when it is just not the case. And it’s just human nature.”
Cormier believes the video released by Thunder Bay Police could result in a mixed reaction from the public. He said people who should be affected by it probably won’t be because they are already convinced of their own beliefs, while others less entrenched in fear or hysteria, might be convinced that police are aware of the situation and are acting accordingly.
“Fear of crime is not rational,” Cormier said. “It persists even in the presence of sometimes overwhelming evidence to the contrary and it’s almost impossible to make it go away.”
